Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
