A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
